WISCONSINREPORT.COM (06/11/08) - The latest Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll shows that Barack Obama is way ahead of John McCain in New York. Based on the poll, Obama could easily count New York in the win column in November. McCain is 14 percentage points behind Obama, according to the poll of nearly 14 hundred New York State residents. The margin of error is 2.6 percentage points.
Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, the likely Democratic presidential nominee, has pulled even among white voters with Arizona Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican contender, and now tops Sen. McCain 50 - 36 percent in New York State, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Sen. Obama gets 42 percent of white votes, to 43 percent for Sen. McCain. Black voters back the Democrat 87 - 6 percent. Obama leads 59 - 29 percent among voters under age 45 and 45 - 40 among voters over 45; 45 - 40 percent among men and 53 - 32 percent among women.
This compares to a 47 - 39 percent Obama lead over McCain in an April 18 poll by the independent Quinnipiac University, when New York Sen. Hillary Clinton still was in the race. In that survey, white voters backed McCain 48 - 38 percent.
In this latest survey, New York State voters say 48 - 42 percent that Obama should not pick Sen. Clinton as his running mate. Democrats support the idea 53 - 35 percent, while Republicans oppose it 62 - 27 percent and independent voters oppose it 53 - 41 percent.
Clinton on the Democratic ticket would help Obama, voters say 46 - 27 percent. Republicans split 34 - 33 percent, while Democrats say 61 - 19 percent and independent voters say 37 - 33 percent that Clinton helps.
"Our favorite daughter, Sen. Hillary Clinton, won't be on top of the ballot, but New York is still solidly blue. Sen. Barack Obama wins in a walk. He pulls even with Sen. John McCain among white voters. And he mesmerizes the young. In the 18-to-44 age bracket, he blows McCain away," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
New York State voters give Obama a 55 - 28 percent favorability, compared to 44 - 38 percent for McCain.
Obama cares about their needs and problems voters say 62 - 28 percent. They split on McCain, with 46 percent saying he doesn't care and 44 percent saying he does.
McCain's age will not affect their vote, 70 percent say, while 25 percent say it makes them less likely to vote for the Republican.
Obama's race won't affect their vote, 85 percent say, while 10 percent say it makes them more likely to vote for the Democrat.
"Some Republicans call Obama 'elitist,' but New Yorkers find him sympathetic. McCain, with a lifetime in government - first the Navy, then Congress - comes up narrowly negative on that measure," Carroll said.
"You have to be careful when you ask about prejudices. Do people tell the truth? Still, New Yorkers tell us, heavily, they're not prejudiced because of McCain's age, and, overwhelmingly, they're not prejudiced because of Obama's race."
The economy is the single most important issue in their presidential vote, 46 percent of voters say, while 24 percent list the war in Iraq and 12 percent list health care.
In fact, 76 percent of New York State voters describe the state's economy as "not so good" or "poor." That includes 84 percent of upstate voters, 66 percent of New York City voters and 75 percent of suburban voters. The economy will get worse in the next year, 46 percent of voters say, while 14 percent say it will get better and 36 percent say it will stay the same.
"No change. On issues, the old slogan holds: It's the economy, stupid," Carroll said.
BUSH HAS 20 PERCENT APPROVAL IN POLL:
New York State voters disapprove 76 - 20 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing. Even Republicans split 47 - 47 percent. This ties the findings in a March 27 Connecticut survey as the lowest mark for President Bush in any Quinnipiac University poll since he became President.
From June 3 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,388 New York State voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.