WISCONSINREPORT.COM (02/29/08) - Around the time that New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg announced that he definitely will not be running for president of the United States in 2008, a college in New York State was taking a survey to determine how many votes Bloomberg would get if he were a third party candidate. Results in three of the biggest states showed that Bloomberg would have received no more than nine percent of the votes in Florida, Ohio and Pensylvania. Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University also discovered that Bloomberg would likely take votes away from McCain.
New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who has insisted he is not running for President, could not break out of single digits in three-way presidential matchups in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to the February 14th Quinnipiac University poll.
Because these three Swing States are pivotal in presidential elections, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll has been conducting simultaneous surveys.
"Maybe Mayor Michael Bloomberg realizes that New York line, 'if you can make it there you can make it anywhere,' doesn't always work in politics," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
The February 14th results matched Mayor Bloomberg against New York Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton and Republican Arizona Republican Senator John McCain, or against Illinois Democratic Senator Barack Obama and Senator McCain.
If Bloomberg would have run against Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican John McCain , in Florida, Bloomberg would likely receive 7 percent of the votes, compared to 38 percent for McCain, and 40 percent for Hillary Clinton.
If Bloomberg was in a three way race with McCain and Barack Obama in November, Bloomberg would only receive 9 percent of the votes in Florida, compared to Obama at 35 percent of the Florida votes and McCain with 37 percent.
In Ohio, the college determined that Bloomberg would only get 6 percent of the votes against Clinton and McCain, who would be tied at 40 percent each in the November 2008 election.
If Barack Obama becomes the Democratic nominee and was running against Bloomberg and McCain, Bloomberg would only receive 6 percent of the votes in November, compared to 38 percent for Obama and 39 percent for McCain.
If Hillary Clinton gets the final nod from Democrats at the Colorado National Convention, the Quinepiac University poll shows that Pennsylvania November voting would likely end up with Bloomberg receiving only 7 percent, compared to 36 percent for McCain and 42 percent for Hillary Clinton.
The poll shows that Bloomberg would not have done any better against Democrat Barack Obama running on the Democrats ticket, and McCain on the Republican side. Under that scenario, Barack Obama and John McCain would probably be tied with 38 percent of the vote each, compared to just 7 percent for Bloomberg.
In each state, Bloomberg drew support away from McCain, according to the Quinipiac University polling.
"In much of the rest of the country, Bloomberg wasn't that well known or well regarded. These polls of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania - in which he could not crack double digits - show just how large a challenge a Bloomberg presidential candidacy would have faced," Peter Brown said.